The future of wireless (Part 1): Evolution of Mobile Devices and Services

For those with discretion, wireless and mobile are easily the most different of things, mobile merely being the subset of wireless and wireless meaning many things more than just the mobile. This latest series of blogs will examine different aspects of convergence from a 10 year future perspective. For sake of simplicity, I will address each perspective differently. Mixing them up will be quite complicating and lengthy…

In this post, I would be discussing mobile devices and mobile networks and limited aspects of mobility, content from a future perspective:

1. Mobile phones without SIMs and no network allegiance: What would it take for Apple, Google, Skype, Amazon to offer mobile phones that run on mashed up networks of WiFi/WiMAX, LTE/4G and thus offering free voice calls. That could be the death knell for operators and Google with its “Dark fibre” rumours is one trail blazer here.

2. Cellular voice will die (or in any case, there will be no money in voice). Landlines will be extinct and as networks transgress from 3G to IP network infrastructures of 4G, the cost of data as a revenue stream would have diminishing and negative returns on marginalities. VoIP would have taken over as the substitute for cellular voice.

3. Mobile phones would be made available free to all and even a smartphone would be available for a $10 price. Phone makers would make monies through revenue share agreements of services enabled on the phone or from transactions that are done from their devices. We will surely discuss the mobile wallet aspect in the future of wireless series sometime later.

4. Data would be free. There would be a mesh of networks enabled by WiFi, WiMAX, LTE, 4G each provided to the consumer/user free or for a very nominal charge. The smartphone would obviously be the primary data device, but then there would be tablets, MIDs, ebooks and others.

5. Consumers will be paid for data consumption. Forget the debate of people not wanting to pay for digital content; users, will be paid for digital content. Operators, Eco-system partners, content makers, aggregators will earn not from the consumer using their services, but because a sponsor is using their services to reach out to the consumer in a manner relevant, custom built and engaging to the user. That is slightly difficult to imagine, but the current TV, Radio and Magazine industries use this model to push sponsored ads and content to users….

6. … Mobiles will thus become the largest marketing channel offering best results to sponsors in terms of relevance, profile, segmentation and targeting of users in the history of marketing.

7. Content bundles will be available in mobile service contracts starting with music, books, TV, News, Magazines, Internet Sites, Film and more. Owing to high degree of relevance to the user’s tastes and choices, there would be a high degree of engagement built into this bundles which will them find suitable other means of monetization.

8. Physical constraints, such as keyboard dimensions, screen size will cease to be the primary limiting factors in device design as new input and display technologies would squeeze more within the limited “real estate” of the mobile device.

9. Sensors on mobile phones will start picking up “ambient data” from temperature, lighting, noise, and even moods of its users and will customize the device and its service offerings in accordance.

10. Mobile devices will go green not only in terms of components, radiations, use of alternate energy resources, but will also deliver on the most critical feature threshold: battery life at the same time.

There could be a few other computing and processing power related points and others in services such as LBS, Music and more which are worth mentioning here. But as discussed in my opening notes, i will deal with technology and services in greater depth in days to come and not as a part of mobile devices only.

(If you are reading this, Thanks for the read through and let me know if you find this post good or dirt. Suggestions and correspondence welcome)

Kinect:Microsoft’s latest billion dollar baby.Technophiles/ Developers latest crush

Kinect is not only one of the best things that has happened to Microsoft after a long time, it also possibly is the most remarkable product after iPhone and iPad. Apart from its impressive numbers, Kinect’s real success is in terms of being able to initiate innovation amongst developers. While Microsoft was initially against tampering of the hardware, the quality of the results that are coming in has forced it to tamper down its strict approach to tampering and jailbreaking.

Its been a long time, and a real long one at that since we heard something very positive and very good from the Microsoft stable. Microsoft has taken a lot of heat for its inability to innovate, but Kinect has proved that Microsoft is still in the game. The controller-free system for the Xbox 360 received almost universally glowing reviews and shipped 8 million units in the first quarter, making it one of the fastest selling tech product debuts in history. It also debuts fastest in the Microsoft $1 billion businesses. At $150 selling price and $59 BOM cost, Kinect is surely raking both margins and volumes.

While this is debatable, the initial inspiration came from Nintendo Wii, whose motion sensitive controller had made gaming more interactive. The idea was to get rid of the controller. Microsoft bought in a few key technologies from external companies mostly in the field of 3D imaging a human-motion sensing camera. With a start as brilliant as 8 million devices, the Kinect has evoked widespread anticipation, excitement and response amongst technolophiles. Kinect’s combination of sophisticated sensors and affordable price are opening up new possibilities for technophiles working in art, filmmaking, robotics and music. What perhaps is the greatest endorsement to Kinect’s abilities is that within a few days after launch it inspired a communal effort at hacking the software and use the Kinect hardware with PCs and other devices with free, open source code. This was called OpenKinect. As a result, the Kinect has already been used in countless ways its creators never anticipated. Within a quarter OpenKinect had 1650 people registered working as a part of open community innovating on Kinect.

Microsoft was initially skeptical. Perhaps recognizing the value of this innovation, Microsoft has since backed off their strict anti-tampering stance, even going so far as to have spokespeople appearing on the Science Friday podcast say that the port being used to connect the Kinect to PCs was “left open by design.”

Kinect was an extension of the NUI project.This Natural User Interface technology, or NUI, is already present on smart phones and tablets that feature multi-touch, pinch-to-zoom and other intuitive gesture-based control systems, but could be expanded to replace the television remote, the mouse and keyboard, and to introduce technology into new avenues of life.

Here are an assortment of the OpenKinect innovations on the Kinect platform:

Kinect Open Gravity

Kinect Illuminous

Kinect Depth Sculpting Probe

Kinect Keyboard Anywhere

Profiling Near Field Communication

Web 2.0 Summit (San Francisco, 15th November 2010): Google CEO Eric Schmidt announces NFC integration in the Gingerbread release of Android.
In the same summit, RIM CEO, Jim Balsillie re-iterated “we’d be fools not to have [NFC] in the near term”.
According to reports Apple is also working on the NFC payments domain and would be coming up with their payment product sooner.
In July 2010, Nokia’s Anssi Vanjoki stated that all Nokia smartphones will have NFC from 2011
AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile USA and Verizon Wireless also have announced the launch of ISIS, an initiative to develop a single platform that will enable their combined 200million customers to make mobile payments using NFC with a launch planned over the next 18 months, with a nationwide rollout planned by 2013.

User Acceptance of NFC usages

Near-field Communication (NFC) is characterized as a very short-range radio communication technology with a lot of potential, especially when applied to mobile handsets. Imagine users using the cellphone to interact with posters, magazines, and even with products while at the store, and with such interaction initiating a request or search for related information in real-time. Other usages of NFC include the electronic wallet to make payments using handsets, the same way as with a credit card. NFC makes all this is possible. But NFC is still a young technology. That said, NFC-enabled handsets are being introduced into the market, and deployments and pilots around the world are occurring.

NFC is a short-range high-frequency wireless technology enabling devices to exchange data. It has long promised to enter the mobile phone industry and catalyse many new usage scenarios, from proximity payments and transactions to device pairing and data exchange. But despite gaining considerable traction in Japan, where at least 60 million devices are enabled for proximity payments, NFC has struggled to meet expectations elsewhere. This is despite the technology’s steadily growing presence outside the mobile domain in transportation (for example, London’s Oyster card and San Francisco’s Clipper card) and credit cards (for example, Visa’s payWave and MasterCard’s PayPass).

A comparison of short range communication technologies

The mobile phone’s unique position as the most pervasive item of consumer electronics makes it the logical device for NFC to establish ubiquity. While security remains a concern, the maturation of the mobile phone into a highly personal converged device that contains sensitive personal data and performs many other functions means potential social barriers to usage have largely been overcome. In that regard, NFC represents the basis for the next wave of innovation in the mobile space. This goes beyond the utilization of NFC for payments and transactions, the roll-out of which will be slowed by the associated complexity of commercial agreements and the requirement for consistent payment platforms. Therefore, simple applications that extend the versatility and intuitiveness of the mobile phone are likely to be what captures consumer imagination and drives adoption in the near term.

Examples include:
• Touching phones and other devices to share content, contact details or synchronize data. NFC would be used to initiate data transfer over Wi-Fi or another technology.
• Tapping an accessory such as a headset or speakers to establish Bluetooth pairing.
• “Checking-in” to a location for services such as Facebook and Foursquare. NFC could also enable the tagging of friends by touching their devices.
• Selecting applications to be purchased from a wall display in a store.
• Getting applications, vouchers or product details by touching an advertisement.

The boundless diversity of the scenarios enabled by NFC, coupled with the intuitiveness of “touch and go”, means that NFC represents a technological step as significant as the introduction of Wi-Fi. The ease with which NFC can facilitate data transfer means it is likely to play a central role in the pursuit of “convergence”, as it enables the pairing of devices and seamless movement of content from one to another.

Autonomous Vehicles: Shape of the Future to come

Is this the shape of future to come?

Google CEO Eric Schmidt feels that humans should give up their right to the steering wheel and hand the keys over to a computer. At a recent TechCrunch conference, Schmidt opined that we humans aren’t very good at driving, adding that “it’s a bug that cars were invented before computers

After all, thousands of drivers die each year due to accidents that are mostly avoidable. Then there’s the matter of traffic jams; Computers could one day seamlessly route vehicles to the best possible road, virtually eliminating the Interstate parking lot.

Autonomous vehicles?

The Google-Apple Face-off (Part II): TVs, Music, Social Networks and more

Google and Apple have increasingly faced off in consumer electronics and software programs of all stripes. For one thing, there was the surprise revelation of Apple’s Ping last week, a social network all about music that’s integrated with the latest version of iTunes. Google’s plans for a social network of its own are still unclear, though rumors of a “Google Me” service have been around for some months.

There are reports by Reuters that Google is in talks with music labels for a music download store and a digital song locker — space that Apple clearly has a vested interest in.Google has acknowledged that the company did have plans to expand into music but again, the details are not clear.

The only missing piece of the television puzzle is the stuff consumers are most interested in — mainstream content. During the unveiling of the new Apple TV, Steve Jobs said consumers would be able to rent first-run movies for $4.99 or high-definition TV shows for just $0.99, initially just from ABC and Fox.”We think the rest of the studios will see the light and get on board with us pretty soon,” Jobs said. Google has yet to announce content partners, stressing instead the world of free online videos.

Schmidt also said Google would announce partnerships later this year with makers of tablet computers that would use Google’s new Chrome operating system, due to be launched soon, rather than its Android phone software that has been used for mobile devices until now.Google plans to make its Chrome browser, which competes with Microsoft’s Internet Explorer and Mozilla’s Firefox, the center of an operating system that would offer an alternative to Microsoft Windows.

The Google Apple Face-off (Part I): Taking the Web to TVs

It’s Apple versus Google in a growing battle for the living room with potential benefits and innovative content for consumers.

Steve Jobs unveiled the revamped Apple TV on September 1st. The move aims to cross the divide between the TV and the PC. Less than a week after Apple’s announcement, Google CEO Eric Schmidt demonstrated a new service designed to do more or less exactly the same thing — and set to hit U.S. living rooms and TV screens this fall. Google’s free service would allow full Internet browsing via the television. Schmidt also declared that Google would work with a variety of programmers and electronics manufacturers to bring this service to consumers. Google also hinted that it would collaborate with content providers but it is very unlikely to venture into actual content production.Manufacturers such as Logitech, Sony and Samsung have already announced that they are looking into or working with the company to develop hardware in time for Google TV.

The competing products from Google and Apple heats up the battle for television advertising, which market analysts that say could be $180 billion globally. Apple’s latest device, a compact box that hooks into TVs and will cost just $99, allows viewers to stream shows and movies that they have rented or downloaded from iTunes. It can access YouTube,Flickr and other sites as well. Google TV will allow viewers to search and watch programs from the Internet and their DVR recordings. Sony TVs and blu-ray players, as well as Logitech TVs, will come with Google TV installed, though a separate stand-alone device will also be available.

Google versus Apple apart, these emerging devices could transform the way users find and watch videos.
Which device will win? It’s anyone’s guess at this point, though the two devices seem to have slightly different slants. If Apple pursues a strategy similar to that behind the iTunes music store, it will partner with all major television providers and bring cheap uniformity — something consumers will love. Google appears to be opting for ubiquity, allowing open access to all Internet content. it’s the same division seen in smartphone platforms from the two companies — and the Android platform has proved wildly popular lately.

Apple TV:Did it miss a few points?

Since its launch in 2006, Apple TV which was the centre of Apple’s living room strategy hasn’t quite been as luminous as some of other Apple products: iPhone, iPod and iPad. Thus, there was a lot expected when Steve Jobs did announcements for Apple TV on 1st September 2010. Strangely and unprecedentedly for his record, Jobs seems to have missed the bus. Putting it a little more positively, the Apple TV unveiled is possibly just the first step and there are some miles for Apple to cover before getting the Apple TV proposition perfect.

The revamped Apple TV is 75% slimmer, higher on features and at a great price point of $99 for a start. It plays Music, Movies, Videos, TV and more through a set top box that is attached to the TV. The thought here was to extend the proposition of the Apple TV on the lines of iTunes and provide Digital Music, Digital Movies, Digital videos on rent basis. The business model contrasts with Purchase basis of the iTunes store. So while the iTunes store is from a audio perspective, the Apple TV would be the complete AV experience.

The Set Top Box connects to the TV through a HDMI and to the Music Device through a Optical Audio and to the Internet through Ethernet Cable, WiFi or Internet Router.

Heres analyzing the Pros and Cons of the Apple TV:

The Bottomline thus is that Apple TV is just about an OK start which is a departure from Apple’s Great products and bumper starts that we are used to. The Journey and Competition is made harder by the Android which also has an enviable record of innovation and consumer centricity. Together Apple and Google now face-off in the space, which would potentially stretch the definition of home definition out of current limits.

The prize at stake: $180 billion TV advertisements space.

The dawn of smart grid/metering solutions in Electricity distribution and consumption

Smart metering solutions for measuring and monitoring electricity consumption is a pro-active and intelligent approach to a understanding of consumption patterns and values, anticipating blips and trenches and powering smart distribution. The objectives and usages may vary from trend analysis, understanding and forecasting in advanced economies such as US, Western Europe and Japan to enabling proper distribution and minimizing distribution losses in developing economies and third world nations such as Afro-Asia. A small example of the Smart metering solution at work Google and Microsoft targeting to make users/consumers aware of their consumptions through their online tools such as Microsoft Hohm and Google Powermeter in US. In India however, smart metering can help monitor and prevent losses to the tune of Rs.25000 per annum in terms of Transmission and Distribution of Power. This constitutes 25% of the total electricity produced in the country and the losses effect to a -1.5% on GDP growth.

However, According to a new research report from the analyst firm Berg Insight, the installed base of smart electricity meters in Asia-Pacific is projected to grow at 91% CAGR between 2009 and 2015 to reach 116.5 million at the end of the period. Penetration for smart metering technology is projected to soar from very low levels to 25.0 percent by the end of the period. By the mid-2010s, the majority of all electricity meters shipped in the region is expected to have advanced functionalities and networking capabilities. Berg Insight anticipates that the leading economies in the region will have close to 100 percent penetration by 2020. Asia-Pacific is the fastest growing market for smart metering solutions in the world. South Korea has begun the construction of a nationwide smart grid where intelligent energy meters constitute the basic building-block. Japan’s two largest power utilities have announced plans for full-scale smart meter deployments in this decade and China is preparing a nationwide rollout within three to five years. Altogether the three countries have an installed base of more than 360 million electricity meters today.

The trend in large parts of Afro-Asian Continent is yet to begin and would present a substantial challenge and revenue opportunity to firms aiming to control their networks and aiming for smart distribution.

Profiling Cognitive Radio: The 5G driver

The technology evolution from GSM/CDMA to LTE/WiMAX and the Cognitive Radio (which would enable 5G)!

Cognitive radio technologies includes the ability of devices to determine their location, sense spectrum use by neighboring devices, change frequency, adjust output power, and even alter transmission parameters and characteristics.A cognitive radio is a transceiver that is able to understand and react to its operating environment. Thus cognitive radio concerns devices and networks which are computationally intelligent about radio resources and related communications to detect user communication needs as a function of use context and provide radio resources and wireless services appropriate to those needs. Thus the Radio is aware/cognitive about changes in its environment and responds to these changes by adapting operating characteristics in some way to improve its performance or minimize loss in performance.

• At one extreme, is an intelligent device that can reconfigure itself to interact with any radio network in the vicinity, depending on the requirements of the user
• At the other extreme, there is a intelligent device that detects interference and change their operating frequency to avoid it.

Spectral occupancy measurements consistently show that some bands are under utilized in some areas at some times. Recent measurements by the FCC in the US show 70% of the allocated spectrum is not utilized. Time scale of the spectrum occupancy varies from milli-secs to hours. Cognitive Radio increases the utilization of the Radio Spectrum and decreases spectrum holes and white spaces. Thus Spectrum holders are able to use their spectrum more efficiently and sub license it further and supports new models not directly tied to spectrum availability. In short it could facilitate spectrum trading.

The potential benefits include expansion of critical communication networks, higher date rate services to users, enhanced coverage, more extensive device roaming and cost management.Cognitive radio is a promising technology that can significantly enhance utilization of radio spectrum and has the potential to facilitate new spectrum trading approaches and business models.

A new dimension to TVs: Google TV

TV meets Web. Web meets TV.

This is a successor to the first post on Active TV and Android.

4 billion people across the world watch TV and it was time before TV became a more active medium than the passive one way medium that it is presently. Not only does this give a new dimension to TV but also helps it counter the fight from the entertainment experience from phones and computers. The main reason why TV lags Phones and Computers is because of the lack of the Web. With the web, finding and accessing interesting content is fast and often as easy as a search. But the web still lacks many of the great features and the high-quality viewing experience that the TV offers.

Google now strides into this green space fusing the experience of Live TV and the best of Web in one seamless experience. Thus the TV invades the Personal computing and laptop computing space and provides a two way experience including favorite video, music and photo sites.

Google TV is a new experience for television that combines the TV that you already know with the freedom and power of the Internet. The Google TV will be powered by the Google Chrome which will allow access to user’s favorite websites and easily move between television and the web. This opens up TV from a few hundred channels to millions of channels of entertainment across TV and the web. The television is also no longer confined to showing just video. With the entire Internet in the living room, the TV becomes more than a TV — it can be a photo slideshow viewer, a gaming console, a music player and much more. Google TV uses search to provide an easy and fast way to navigate to television channels, websites, apps, shows and movies.

This possibly is just scratching the surface in Active TV viewing. Basis the Android and Chrome Open Platforms, Web Developers may have to re-define the internet experience altogether and design content and apps especially for TV viewing. Google is making available the Google TV SDK and web APIs for TV so that developers can build even richer applications and distribute them through Android Market. It is also in strategic alliance with Jinni.com and Rovi at the leading edge of innovation in TV technology for providing semantic search, personalized recommendation, guide applications and social features for Google TV across all sources of premium content available to the user.

Google has also commented that they are in talks with Logitech and Sony to put Google TV inside their Televisions, Blue Ray players and companion boxes and is aiming to hit the market by Spring 2010.

This is an incredibly exciting time — for TV watchers, for developers and for the entire TV ecosystem. By giving people the power to experience what they love on TV and on the web on a single screen, Google TV turns the living room into a new platform for innovation.

Watch this You Tube Tutorial on Google TV