Is there room for more than 3 OSs in Mobile?

Gary Kovacs, CEO Mozilla wants a piece of the action in enabling the next 2 billion people graduate to the internet. Thus the Firefox OS. Over the last couple of weeks there have been increasing number of claims to divergence in the Mobile OS space- Blackberry 10, Tizen, Ubuntu and now Mozilla. Additionally Samsung is shutting off Bada and HP is selling off WebOS (to LG).

1. Android being the 70% market leader is working on economies of scale and scope – spreading the open platform across multiple domains – TV, Project Glass, Set Top Boxes, Refridgerators, Cars and more. Thus Android is emerging as the truly “connected OS” in the age of convergence
2. Apple still rules as the king of experience and if the experiments in India are replicated across emerging nations – and if the low cost iPhone is in works – Apple will multiply its market share in the mid range ($200) segment in the emerging nations.
3. Historically, OSs have largely oligopolistic/monopolistic in nature. Windows has ruled the PC wave and Android/iOS share the spoils in Mobile devices (Smartphones and Tablets). Even in the feature phone category – Symbian ruled the roost before the advent of Smartphones.
4.While the promise of a diversified OS experience and OS fatigue is a promised land – most of the experiments in this field have returned without encouraging results. (The Palm and HP experience with WebOS and the Samsung experience with home grown Bada being key examples)
5. Even a Goliath like Microsoft is unable to turn the RT platform with a reasonably decent Windows8 experience. Currently all it has is just a toe-hold in the industry even with a Office monopoly out there.
6. Operators – the key market facing entities in the telecom eco-system support the concept of multi OS but the consumer ask is converging to 2 or maximum of 3 OSs. Apple, Android and Blackberry/Windows take those spaces.
7. OEMs and Developers on the other hand would like to be working on 2/3 OSs – OEMs get their economies of scale and Developers have lesser customization requirements for their apps (Agree that HTML5 may change a bit of this)

There’s yet another promise of a light OS with cloud support supported by HTML5 – but even that experience is far from mainstream currently. Many of the fledgeling OSs plan to ride the HTMl5 wave. However, HTML5 and its features are also key to Android and Apple’s iOS – all the more relevant with over 600K apps each.

All these factors put together- my feeling is that there isn’t much room for multi-OS play. I had love to be proven wrong such as the way Windows explorer ceded the browser space to Chrome, Safari and Mozilla.

So to answer Mr.Kovacs narrative – “Apple and Google have led the way in the smartphone market but can’t cover the whole thing- it (is) impossible to understand how 3, 4, 5, or 6 billion people are going to get their diverse needs satisfied by one or two or five companies, no matter how delicious those companies are… Is the farmer in the Indian countryside going to have the same needs and requirements as a lawyer sitting in New York?“

Yes, Mr.Kovacs- there is very limited need divergence in the age of convergence- and then there is scale!

Gartner: Q4, 2012 Mobile Phone and Smartphone Market shares

Long time back, i had written a blog on the subject of smartphones becoming the key handheld at the cost of feature phones. If the Gartner 2012 numbers are to be considered, the saturation point for feature phones has been reached and the 2012 feature phones numbers – have been on a 1.66% decline as against 2011.

Incidentally, i see another trend – that of smaller players/ white-labelled OEMs- and a fragmented market emerging – a far cry from the Nokia and Samsung dominance days. The rise of Android is but actually a testimony to this trend with the exception of Samsung. With no malevolence to Samsung – it does seem to me that Samsung is holding on to a untenable position in shares in mobile devices with the white labeled OEMs on the prowl.

While Apple will still hold on to the smartphone ground (because of its ability to leverage hardware, software , services and experience), Samsung doesnot hold that ace with Android. This inspite of the fact that Samsung Galaxy series was the first high end Android that has challenged and now dethroned technology leadership of the iPhone.

The end result looks like an Android dominated market, though there could be a case of Android fatigue setting in with the audiences. However with the low end $50 smartphones on Android’s the numbers for Android will continue to add up especially in APAC and African markets. Thus Android is expected to still rule the volumes game on smartphones. It would be interesting to see how Windows and Blackberry go after Android – but the key still remains that – Android is the undisputed choice in smartphones in the fastest growing markets across the world. Windows and Blackberry will take time reversing this trend.

Q4, 2012 Smartphone Market shares- IDC

The new IDC report for smartphone shipments in Q4, 2012 hands it over to Android – which seems to have reached more dizzying heights than what Symbian/Nokia ever reached in their near monopolistic regime heydays. the two systems accounted for 91.1 percent of operating systems on all smartphone shipments during the fourth quarter of 2012. For the year 2012, Android and iOS accounted for 87.6 percent of operation systems on smartphones shipped.

Android smartphone vendors and Apple shipped a total of 207.6 million units worldwide during Q4 which is a 70.2 percent increase from the 122.0 million shipments of Q4 2011.

Android Saw triple-digit growth for the year. According to IDC, Samsung was the biggest contributor to Android’s success as 42.0 percent of all Android smartphone shipments during the year were by Samsung. The report notes that the intra-Android competition has not stifled companies from keeping Android as the cornerstone of their respective smartphone strategies.
At the end of 2012, Android had a 68.8 percent of market, with over 497.1 million shipments. In 2011, Android’s market share was 49.2 percent with 243.5 million shipments.

iOS also continued to register strong growth. But the report notes that iOS’s year-over-year growth has slowed compared to the overall market. Of course the report also mentions the growing buzz around a large-screen iPhone and a cheaper variant, which it says would help sustain growth. iOS shipments for 2012 stood at 135.9 million smartphones which represents an 18.8 percent market share. This is a 46 percent growth compared to 2011 when iOS smartphone shipments stood at 93.1 million at a market share of 18.8 percent.

BlackBerry OS: The report states that the decision to postpone the release of BB10 to 2013 left the platform vulnerable in 2012 and reliant primarily on older smartphones running on BB7. As a result, BlackBerry’s tight grip on enterprise users has loosened. BlackBerry had 32.5 million shipments for 2012, which gives it a market share of 4.5 percent. This is down 36.11 percent from 2011 where it had 51.1 million shipments and a market share of 10.3 percent.

Windows Phone/Windows Mobile: The report notes that this has made some progress in Q4 of 2012. Nokia’s Lumia phones were the key driver in Microsoft’s success, says IDC. Windows Phone/Windows Mobile had a 17.9 million shipments and represents a 2.5 percent market for mobile OS on smartphones. This is 98.9 percent increase from 2011 when it had only 9.0 million shipments which was a market share of 1.8 percent.

Elop – Whose line is he towing?

If the results from Nokia are any indication, Stephen Elop is in a tight spot – and unless the Lumia launches in Q4, 2012 reap a rich harvest, Elop may be under a huge pressure. Nokia has reported a third-quarter net loss of $1.27 billion as revenue plunged 19% and sales of its flagship Windows Phone fell to 2.9 million units. Revenue dropped to $9.45 billion and furthermore, Nokia has given a grim outlook for the rest of the year. While the numbers seem to have reversed as against Q2, 2012, Nokia is now pinning all its hopes on the Lumias – a desperate and a dire situation to be in. Given the dominance of the iPhone5 and the Androids, Nokia’s comeback kid, Lumia may risk a lukewarm response which may not re-kindle the comeback hopes for Nokia.

Nearly 20 months after the announcement of the Windows smartphone polarization, Stephen Elop really hasn’t much to show in terms of smartphone numbers. While Nokia’s reliance on the strategy of third platform option against Apple and Android is definitely true, but Elop just seems to be talking more Microsoft. As a phone maker, Windows has not really turned things around for Nokia. Has it? Instead over the last 2 years, Elop has steadily and unfailing ditched every other promising option – be it Meego, Maemo, Meltemi and now Symbian Belle in favour of Microsoft Windows.

So, Q4 is now the crunch quarter – Nokia will have to our perform with the Lumias – make it a smashing success. Anything less than smashing success will not inspire anyone. Given the Apple iPhone5’s 58 million numbers and the march of Samsung Android’s, it is difficult to imagine customer interest and instore-purchase of Nokia Lumias to be moonbound in the 1st quarter of its launch. What really beats me – is that Nokia has now put Symbian in maintenance mode and all the future roadmap of Symbian is cancelled. Nokia Symbian devices still outsells Windows-powered Lumias, by 3.4 million to 2.9 million, in Q3, 2012. Pulling the (investment and development effort) plug on your cash cow isnt the wisest thing – is it?

The question for Elop remains – Whose line is he towing? Nokia? Or Microsoft? And is Microsoft really planning a take-over

Tablets – the continuing growth!

Global tablet demand will continue to surge in the next 4 years inspite of all the ongoing economic concerns shrouding most regions in the world. IDC expects tablet shipments to grow at a CAGR 25% over the next 4 years to cap 261 million units by 2016.

IDC upped its forecasts for 2012 from 107 mln units to 117 mln units and its forecasts for 2013 from 142mln units to 166 mln units.Apple iPad will continue to dominate where as Android and Windows will expand the markets. Apple’s lead will slip, but only slightly, from 60 percent of the market this year to 58 percent by 2016. Soon to be released Apple’s 7” iPad will wrestle the low cost Android’s at the economy end of the market. Android’s share will also decline, from 35 percent this year to 30.5 percent in another four years. Windows Tablets will turn out 11% of the market in 2016 as against the 4% in 2012. Cost is seen as a major stumbling block to Windows Tablets. However in times to come, Windows tablet will provide the requisite momentum to the tablet category as a whole especially in the enterprise segment.

On the same note, iHS iSuppli has provided an estimate of 126.6 million units tablet shipments in 2012. That is a robust 56 percent annual increase in shipments for the tablet market in 2012, from 82.1 million units in 2011. Even while 59% sales will be from the 9.7” form factor (Growth in 9.7” segment is forecast to rise 35 percent from 55.2 million units in 2011), the fastest-growing portion of the market will the 7” screens tablets. n the seven-inch segment, which Apple is expected to enter later this year, sales are expected to nearly double from 20.8 million units last year.

Microsoft’s platform fragmentation: The impact of V.2

A difference in V.2 gives insight into the (non) user-centricness of Microsoft

June 20th 2012: Microsoft unveils the Windows 8!

October 26th 2012: Reported Windows 8 commercial launch!

Kudos has to be given for the Windows Phone feature designers and engineers. They created a phone that makes you feel more connected to your friends and family. The Live Tile updates are a small thing but make a huge difference for gleaning information. All that work has been undone by the way Microsoft announced Windows Phone 8.

According to estimates by Mary Jo Foley, Microsoft 7 sold 3.5 million units. And all these 3.5 million users dont get any shot to Windows 8. These 3.5 million users are the real Windows Mavens – a readily available bank of users who had moved to Microsoft 7 inspite of options such as Android and Apple. There are reasons for these 3.5 million to be bitterly dissapointed. There is a reason to think that the choice in purchasing a Windows 7 was in vain.  All they get is a shot at 7.8. The difference of V.2 here is more than just a number – it is an experiential change. It also shows that Microsoft still is all about technology and less considerate of the users and user loyalty.

As defined by Microsoft, Windows Phone 8 encompasses improvements that require better hardware, so old devices will not receive Windows Phone 8. Instead they will get the features compatible with their device and it will be called Windows Phone 7.8. 7.8 is not equal to 8. An engineer would appreciate the transparency. A general consumer will be disappointed. His trust is compromised. Would that be an improvement or platform fragmentation.

It shows that while Microsoft is thinking from a product perspective – putting out an outstanding product in the market, it really understands less of the 3.5 million users who are left out in the cold with only a minor improvisation in Windows 8.

Compare that to Apple, which establishes a general compatibility between its successive versions. What many dont know is while, not every feature in iOSx runs on the older devices, but Apple still calls it iOSx and users are happy that their device is running the latest OS.That is a significant gap illustrating how Apple knows how to present itself to the consumer compared to Microsoft.

So what is the difference between V0.2? Alienating the supporters of Windows  phone 7 instead of cementing their loyalty for Windows Phone 8.

The Tablet takeover

According to Gartner, the Tablet segment sales are going to increase from 68 million units in 2011 to 118 million units in 2012 registering a 98% increase in volumes. 2011 saw tablet shipments multiply by 3.5X over 2010. Furthermore, the segment will see growth at 60%+ CAGR for the next 5 years and gartner expects that the total number of tablet users will be in excess of 660 million by 2016.

Apple will be the key player and influencer in the segment, even while Amazon, Android and Windows build base and shall continue its leadership position well in 2015 albeit more smaller margins.

Presenting my first infographic build to emphasize the promise in the Tablet devices segment.

Developer Interest in Android wanes as Hybrid Apps take over

HTML5 is taking over as the key enabler of Internet on mobile phones. The Internet of all things and cloud based convergence will be a key theme in this decade and it will be powered by a tight integration powered by APIs. The future will be about Platforms on which devices and services will be enabled will be powered by applications both native and web based. This post examines the platform, applications and developer intent.

A recent survey by Appcelerator finds that Apple iOS leads the developer interest charts with 89% intent. iPad comes a close second at 88%. On the Applications side, the loser is a very unlikely candidate: Android (79% on the Android phones,64% on the Tablets and 51% on the ICS platform). Appcelerator in its quarterly survey figures out that Android is gradually slipping down mobile programmers’ priority list, with HTML5 powered Web apps stepping in to as an answer to development difficulties. HTML5 ended up showing 67% positive intent from developers.

The wanning interest in Android platform is being attributed to the Fragmentation of the Android platform. The survey concludes that a lot of developers are unhappy with the fragmentation of the platform as well as the fragmentation of the monetization platform. Fragmentation impedes monetization on the Android platform. Customization for screen size, feature sizes, even skins that device manufacturers have put on top of that eats into resources allocation on the platform.

79% of developers think that HTML5 was going to be a component of people’s apps in 2012. Only 6% developers plan to make all-out Web app that runs in a browser; a much larger 72% plan a hybrid approach that wraps native interface elements around an app that relies on a browser engine behind the scenes. A hybrid has some native code on device, but content will be delivered via HTML.

For developers on open platforms it’s a tough line to walk. They want to have an open OS, but openness means they’re going to have fragmentation.

Web applications–those built with technologies such as HTML, CSS, and JavaScript that run using a browser engine–answer at least some of Google’s fragmentation challenges.Web apps rose slightly to 67 percent, passing Android tablets in the last quarter. Thus HTML poses the answer to fragmentation.

The good news for Android is that even while it has suffered recent declines it fares much better than Blackberry (16% Developer interest) and Windows (37% developer interest).

The good news for Google is that developer interest is on a rise for Web-App hybrid environment like the one running on its Chrome OS and Chromebooks.

The Three Platform paradigm in connected future of technology

The future belongs to connected experiences over a large range of devices starting from Smartphone, Tablet, Networks and not limiting only to TV, Vehicles, Home appliances and more. As a new era of convergence sweeps in, increasingly its evident that the Apple, Android and Windows will lead this march of convergence into the future.

Apple leads by the experience example on a relatively modest number of its own devices. The key will be the experience factor which will power Apple as a high margin and profitable enterprise. The key challenge for Apple will be to enable experiences seamlessly across platforms and devices. Apple will not be in the game of out-innovating Android. It will be more about how well it is able to merge exepreince, interface with technology services on various platforms and devices.

Android will emerge as the mass vehicle. Being open and free will anchor a lot of innovation, some of it across some very new devices and interfaces. The key here is Android’s flexibility which will provide sound base for innovation across platform and devices. The challenge for Android will be in terms of providing a common user experience. There may not be any pure Android experience since innovation on various platforms will add to disintegration of the “pure” Android Interface and experience. This is both good and bad for Android (the Amazon example) because it would mean staying ahead of the curve at the cost of not having an interface as good as Apple.

Microsoft Windows will consolidate its Enterprise position and leverage its advantage across legacy platforms and security.  Microsoft however has been loose in bringing innovation to markets. For every Kinect, there is a surface which is not yet commissioned. However, Microsoft’s niche has to be the enterprise and with its Windows8 it is trying to establish credibility across mobility experiences. Microsoft may still be lagging the “killer app” in enterprise mobility- and a Balckberry acquisition can give it just that edge in terms of the Blackberry infrastructure. There are some reports of a acquistion afoot. Interestingly enough Blackberry has put off its QNX platform till end of 2012. If one wishes to read between the lines … a struggling Blackberry puts off QNX almost indefintely, a Microsoft is fishing for “the killer enterprise app”, RIM is a prime sell off target, Microsoft had evinced interest…. is the acquisition a near reality?? We shall see

Gartner: Q3, 2011 Mobile Phone and Smartphone Market shares

• The global mobile handset market gained 5.6 percent in the third quarter to 440.5 million phones. It slowed from 35% growth reported a year earlier and 16.5% in the previous quarter. The slowdown in Western Europe has been compensated by stronger growth in emerging markets such as China.
• Nokia retained the top spot with a 23.9 percent market share, climbing from 22.8 percent in the second quarter, down from 28.2% year on year. Samsung, LG Electronics Inc., Apple, and ZTE Corp. rounded out the top five vendors.
• Smartphone sales by volume grew 42 percent. Smartphones gained one percentage point from the previous quarter to 26 percent of all mobile-phone sales. Smartphone sales to end users reaching 115 million in the quarter
• Google Android accounted for 52.5 percent of smartphone sales, more than doubling its share from a year earlier. This is up from the 20.5 million Android-powered smartphones sold in the third quarter of 2011, when Android accounted for a 25.3 percent market share.Android benefited from more mass-market offerings, a weaker competitive environment, and the lack of exciting new products on alternative operating systems. Android was estimated to sell 60.5 million units in the third quarter of 2011
• Samsung, maker of the Galaxy line of Android smartphones, became the biggest smartphone maker for the first time. Samsung sold a total of 24 million smartphones in the third quarter compared with Nokia’s 19.5 million. Symbian handsets lost almost 20 percentage points from a year earlier (36.3% last year) to account for 16.9 percent of smartphones as the company shifted to Microsoft Corp. Nokia accounted for 22.1% smartphone sales in the quarter that ended June.
• Research in Motion Ltd. (RIM) declined 4.4 percentage points from a year earlier to 11 percent of the smartphone market in the quarter.
• Apple was the world’s fourth-largest handset vendor, while its iOS operating system was the third-largest smartphone operating system with a 15% market share, down from 16.6% a year earlier. With a limited number of iPhone models taking on a plethora of Android-powered handsets from multiple manufacturers, Apple’s iOS actually lost market share in the worldwide smartphone market last quarter despite growing sales
• ZTE Corp.’s smartphone market share increased to 3.2% from 1.9% in the same quarter a year ago, while Research In Motion Ltd.’s (RIMM) share declined to 2.9% from 3.0%.