Ronnie05's Blog

Demystifying Twitter (Part II): Usage charecterestics

Posted in Social context, media and advertising by Manas Ganguly on June 30, 2009

Contd from earlier post http://technologyandtelecom.blogspot.com/2009/06/demystifying-twitter-one-way-one-to.html

Activity levels of Twitter Users
Data collected from Twitter Grader (4.5 million users) has some interesting inferences that need to be taken note of:
1. 79.79% users failed to provide a homepage URL
2.75.86% of users have not entered a bio in their profile
3.68.68% have not specified a location
4.55.50% of suers donot follow anyone
5.54.88% have never tweeted
6.52.71% have no followers

 

9.06% of all Twitter users are inactive (less than 10 followers, 10 friends,10 updates). Of the ones, who are thus classified to be active, and have a bio, loaction, hompage URL:

 

1. Average user tweets .97 times a day
2. An average user has tweeted 119.34 times in total
3. The average user has a following to follower raio of .7738

 

In terms of content of tweets:
1.1.44% of all tweets are retweets
2.37.95% of all tweets contain an @ symbol (mentions)
3.33.44% of all tweets start with an @ symbol (replies)

 

Most users stretch the 140 character limit to the max in an attempt to get as much content as possible into every update.The distribution of postings over days and times of day shows us that business hours during the business week in the US are the most popular.
Twitter usage
The maximum concentration of Twitter use is in US, followed by Canada and UK. Australia is the next in the list.
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Demystifying Twitter (Part I)

Posted in Social context, media and advertising by Manas Ganguly on June 30, 2009

A Report from Harvard Business Publishing house categorizes and says that Twitter resembles more of a one-way, one-to-many publishing service more than a two-way, peer-to-peer communication network.

Twitter has attracted tremendous attention from the media and celebrities, but there is much uncertainty about Twitter’s purpose. Is Twitter a communications service for friends and groups, a means of expressing yourself freely, or simply a marketing tool?

Here’s sampling two independent studies on the Twittersphere (The Twitter eco-system):

1. A study on the user demographics and usage phenomenon by Harvard Business Publishing (Sampling about 3 lakh Twitter users)
2. Another study by Hubspot on activity levels of Twitter Users. (Sampling about 4.5 million users)

User Demographics and usage styles
Compared against other online social networks; 80% Twitter users have atleast 1 follower/following. This is in contrast to the online social portals, which register 60 – 65% single friend status. The other marked departure from social networking standards is the following/follower pattern. Most of the online social networks activity is focusssed around women, where as in Twitter, the activity is centred on men.

It might point to the fact that content produced by Men on twitter is perceived to be more compelling than a typical social network and content produced by women is less compelling (because of lack of photo sharing, detailed biographies etc)

Twitter Followers

The Twitter usage pattern is also very different from a typical on line social network and a Twitter user contributes very rarely –> The median lifetime tweets per user is one which translates to over half the twitter users retweeting less than once every 74 days.Twitter Users IIAt the same time there is a small contingent of users who are very active. Specifically, the top 10% of prolific Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets. On a typical online social network, the top 10% of users account for 30% of all production. To put Twitter in perspective, consider an unlikely analogue – Wikipedia. There, the top 15% of the most prolific editors account for 90% of Wikipedia’s edits ii. In other words, the pattern of contributions on Twitter is more concentrated among the few top users than is the case on Wikipedia, even though Wikipedia is clearly not a communications tool. This implies that Twitter’s resembles more of a one-way, one-to-many publishing service more than a two-way, peer-to-peer communication network.
Twitter Followers II

Microsoft Morro on the Horizon

Posted in Mobile Devices and Company Updates by Manas Ganguly on June 29, 2009
microsoft_vista-logoMicrosoft Corp in a quest to provide complete security to its OS users would soon be launching its own antivirus app Code named-‘Morro’ at the end of 2009.
This news assumes significance as this antivirus would be completely free and would provide higher level of security due to close knit approach with Windows OS.Microsoft may be able to provide a great solution due to control over anonymous usage statistics of millions of PC’s.
This has sound alarms for commercial Anti-virus companies like Symantec, Kaspersky and McAfee, earning majority of their revenues by protecting Windows PCs all these years. These companies also have significant presence in enterprise security market and attract huge revenues from it.
Today many users are forced to buy paid anti-virus to fight higher level of threats unleashed by malicious programmes and viruses. The availability of anti-virus app by Microsoft itself would avoid the security dilemma faced by OS users and may also increase its legal OS sales in emerging markets.
Microsoft through this initiative is trying to ramp up confidence amongst its customers, at the same time opening up a new revenue stream in future. The move may be late timed but indeed serve great purpose for users craving about better anti-virus integration in windows OS.
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Indian Telecom Story (Part X): Gartner’s predictions on Indian Telecom Industry

Posted in Industry updates by Manas Ganguly on June 29, 2009

TowersGartner has made public, its future growth prediction for the Indian Telecoms market. Here’s presenting a few highlights of the same:

1.The Telecom sector revenues would touch $30 billion by 2013 registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5 percent between 2009-2013. In other words the Indian Telecom industry with its low double digit growth numbers is now maturing as any other industry would.

2.The Telecom subscriber base is also expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5 percent and would cross 770 million by 2013. This is somewhat in disagreement with DoT’s figures of 900 million by 2013/ and 1.1 billion by 2015. http://technologyandtelecom.blogspot.com/2009/05/dot-in-first-ever-forecast-of-mobile.html

3.Mobile market penetration is projected to increase to 63.5 percent in 2013 from 38.7 percent in 2009. The main resons for this would be increased focus on the rural market, entry of consumer durable and electronic companies into the mobile handset segment, and cheaper handsets.

4.The churn rate – the rate at which a subscriber switches their operator – would cross 59 percent in 2013 from 53 percent currently. The churn rate is also not expected to shoot to a high level despite introduction of Number portability.

5.The number of people with prepaid connections,accounting for 93 percent of the subscriber base in 2008, will continue to swell to exceed 96 percent by 2013, surpassing 740 million. The postpaid to prepaid ratio will not see major up move as it is forecasted to exceed 29 million by 2013 just a small CAGR growth of 2.5 percent from 23 million in 2008.This could be a big dampener as it reflect the inability of Telco’s to garner post-paid users.

6.The revenues from data services will significantly contribute to mobile services in India, with a CAGR of 16.8% from 2009 to 2013. Growth will be triggered by increased adoption of value-added services, which are relevant to both rural and urban markets.The introduction of 3G in future could well land a helping hand in increasing Telecom sector’s revenues.

Ref: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/Indias-telecom-sector-earnings-to-cross-30-bn-by-2013-Gartner-Inc/articleshow/4671166.cms

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Quick Bite: Steve Johnson on Twitter

Posted in Social context, media and advertising by Manas Ganguly on June 28, 2009

6a00d8345166f269e201157Twitter’s key elements — the follower structure, link-sharing, real-time searching — are here to stay. And every major channel of information will be “Twitterfied” in one way or another in the coming years.

Steven Berlin Johnson’s Time cover story: http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1902604,00.html

World Internet Usage and Population Statistics

Posted in Internet and Search by Manas Ganguly on June 28, 2009

Internet Users Dataworld2009usersworld2009prworld2009pie

Reference: www.internetworldstats.com

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Intel and Nokia join hands for Linux based netbooks

Posted in Industry updates, Mobile Devices and Company Updates, The Technology Ecosystem by Manas Ganguly on June 24, 2009

Nokia, Intel explore the Open source route for developing the netbook. While this is a step in future for the likes of Nokia and Intel and an extension of their platforms from a new device perspective; it is also significant in terms of development of a third camp apart from Apple and Microsoft. It also holds a lot of promise in terms of benefits from open source. Reproducing the first reactions: http://crave.cnet.co.uk/laptops/0,39029450,49302736,00.htm

Intel and Nokia have announced a long-term relationship that will see the development of Intel-powered, Linux-based handheld mobile-computing devices.

The partnership between the chipmaker and handset manufacturer was announced on Tuesday, 23rd June 2009. Under the deal, the companies will collaborate on several open-source mobile Linux software projects, and Intel will license HSPA/3G modem intellectual property from Nokia.

“This Intel and Nokia collaboration unites and focuses many of the brightest computing and communications minds in the world, and will ultimately deliver open and standards-based technologies, which history shows drive rapid innovation, adoption and consumer choice,” Anand Chandrasekher, the general manager of Intel’s Ultra Mobility Group, said in a statement.

The partners will cooperate on developing common technologies for Intel’s Moblin and Nokia’s Maemo, which are both Linux-based operating systems. Moblin is currently under development for use in netbooks, mobile internet devices (MIDs) and other devices, and Maemo is the operating system that Nokia has used for its N800-series MIDs.

In September, Nokia said the next version of Maemo will incorporate 3G technology for the first time. Until now, devices such as the N810 have relied on Wi-Fi for their data connectivity.

“Enabling common technologies across the Moblin and Maemo software environments will help foster the development of compatible applications for these devices — building on the huge number of off-the-shelf PC compatible applications,” the companies said in their statement. “The open-source projects will be governed using the best practices of the open-source development model.”

The companies also said they will use open-source technologies from Mozilla, oFono, ConnMan, X.Org, BlueZ, D-Bus, Tracker, GStreamer and PulseAudio.

Nokia’s handsets are all based on ARM-based chip architecture, which has become a key rival to Intel’s x86-based architecture. ARM has dominated the mobile phone market, and the x86 is the basis of most desktop computing, but both are now targeting the netbook market.

In a conference call on Tuesday, Chandrasekher said Intel’s deal with Nokia aims to “work this [x86-based] family of architecture into future mobile devices”, but he declined to specify what kinds of devices were being planned, or when they might appear.

Kai Öistämö, Nokia’s device chief, also said in the call that ARM-based architecture “continues to be an important part of Nokia’s future”.

Telecoms analyst Dean Bubley, of Disruptive Analysis, said on Tuesday that the deal suggests Nokia is not confident that its Symbian mobile phone platform — currently in the process of being open-sourced — will “scale to non-phone devices”.

“There is clearly a concerted effort by lots of people, whether it’s in the Android or non-Android Linux community, to have a go at Microsoft and Apple’s incumbency in notebooks,” Bubley said. “The first round of Linux-powered netbooks did not get acceptance in the mass market — average punters preferred XP because they knew how to use it. There is a vision that a Linux-based platform can change that, but I’m really not sure.”

Intel is a prime backer of WiMax, a long-range wireless technology that is a rival to 3G. Bubley hypothesised that, in those markets where WiMax becomes popular, many users will still need 3G as a back-up, due to patchy WiMax coverage and the need to roam into non-WiMax-covered areas.

“Intel could want to create dual-standard products that use both WiMax and 3G,” Bubley suggested.

http://www.cnn.com/mobile/218101057;jsessionid=KTNYFU0QUAWKKQSNDLPCKH0CJUNN2JVN?cid=ChannelWebBreakingNews
http://www.telecoms.com/12299/intel-teams-up-with-nokia-to-build-mobile-platform
http://technology.iafrica.com/news/technology/1758481.htm

Crystal Gazing: Mobile technologies to watch for in 09/10

Mobile technologies/trends to watch in 2009 and 2010

1.         Bluetooth 3.0 —will likely include features such as ultra-low-power mode that will enable new devices, such as peripherals and sensors, and new applications, such as health monitoring. Bluetooth 3.0 is intended to support “classic” Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and ultrawideband (UWB). It’s possible that more bearers will be supported in the future. Wi-Fi will allow high-end phones to rapidly transfer large volumes of data.

2.         Mobile User Interfaces (UIs) — UIs have a major effect on device usability and supportability. They will also be an area of intense competition in 2009 and 2010, with manufacturers using UIs to differentiate their handsets and platforms. Companies should expect consumer interfaces to drive new expectations of application behavior and performance. Better interfaces will make the mobile Web more accessible on small devices, and will be a better channel to customers and employees.

3.         Location Sensing — Location awareness makes mobile applications more powerful and useful and will be a key component of contextual applications. Location sensing will also enhance systems, such as mobile presence and mobile social networking. The growing maturity of on-campus location sensing using Wi-Fi opens up a range of new applications exploiting the location of equipment or people.

4.         802.11n — 802.11n boosts Wi-Fi data rates to between 100 Mbps and 300 Mbps, and the multiple-input, multiple-output technology used by 802.11n offers the potential for better coverage in some situations. 802.11n is likely to be a long-lived standard that will define Wi-Fi performance for several years. High-speed Wi-Fi is desirable to stream media around the home and office. From an organizational perspective, 802.11n is disruptive; it’s complex to configure, and is a “rip and replace” technology that requires new access points, new client wireless interfaces, new backbone networks and a new power over Ethernet standard. However, 802.11n is the first Wi-Fi technology to offer performance on a par with the 100 Mbps Ethernet commonly used for wired connections to office PCs. It is, therefore, an enabler for the all-wireless office, and will be considered for replacing older 802.11a/b/g systems in 2009 and 2010.

5.         Display Technologies — Displays constrain many characteristics of both mobile devices and applications. During 2009 and 2010, several new display technologies will impact the marketplace, including active pixel displays, passive displays and pico projectors. Pico projectors enable new mobile use cases. Battery life improvements are welcome for any user. Good off-axis viewing enables images and information to be shared more easily. Passive displays in devices, such as e-book readers, offer new ways to distribute and consume documents. Display technology will also become an important differentiator and a user selection criterion.

6.         Mobile Web and Widgets — The mobile Web is emerging as a low-cost way to deliver simple mobile applications to a range of devices. It has some limitations that will not be addressed by 2010 (for example, there will be no universal standards for browser access to handset services, such as the camera or GPS). However, the mobile Web offers a compelling total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage over thick-client applications. Widgets (small mobile Web applets) are supported by many mobile browsers, and provide a way to stream simple feeds to handsets and small screens. Mobile Web applications will be a part of most B2C mobile strategies. Thin-client applications are also emerging as a practical solution to on-campus enterprise applications using Wi-Fi or cellular connections.

7.         Cellular Broadband — Wireless broadband exploded in 2008, driven by the availability of technologies such as high-speed downlink packet access and high-speed uplink packet access, combined with attractive pricing from cellular operators. The performance of high-speed packet access (HSPA) provides a megabit or two of bandwidth in uplink and downlink directions, and often more. In many regions, HSPA provides adequate connectivity to replace Wi-Fi “hot spots,” and the availability of mature chipsets enables organizations to purchase laptops with built-in cellular modules that provide superior performance to add-on cards or dongles.

8.         Near Field Communication (NFC) —NFC is emerging as a leading standard for applications such as mobile payment, with successful trials conducted in several countries. It also has wider applications, such as “touch to exchange information” (for example, to transfer an image from a handset to a digital photo frame, or for a handset to pick up a virtual discount voucher.NFC is likely to become important sooner in emerging markets, with some deployments starting by 2010.

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The great Indian 3G Auction

Posted in Industry updates by Manas Ganguly on June 21, 2009

Government of India has settled for a reserve price of Rs.4040 crore for the long-overdue auction of third-generation (3G) spectrum. The minimum bid amount for pan-India spectrum is double of that recommended by the telecom department and aligns with the finance ministry’s proposal, as the government tries to maximise the revenue it can earn from the auction. It has been decided that up to seven operators (with one slot being reserved for state-owned telcos BSNL & MTNL) will be allowed to offer 3G services across the country. The department of telecom (DoT) wanted a total of five operators. Executives with major telecom operators said the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) – the industry body representing companies that provide mobile services based on the GSM standard – would protest against the decision on the reserve price. Telcos are readying to lobby hard with the government to reduce the base price to at least Rs 3,540 crore per player, as most of them had factored this number in their calculations as both DoT and the finance ministry were close to reaching an agreement on this price. The government would get Rs 24,240 crore from auctioning 3G spectrum to six licencees. While the money would help the government lower the fiscal deficit, he added that the base price of Rs 4,040 crore would be on the higher side.

 

Is the Government killing the proverbial golden goose out here just to shore in money to lower fiscal deficits (Increased by the magnamity of populist policies)?

 

  1. Telcos may restrict their 3G offerings to metros and category A circles which has a faster time to break even on investments
  2. It will increase the entry barrier for operators
  3. It will also increase the service costs for customers
  4. It could restrict bidding to the six big Indian telecom operators
  5. It will be quite difficult for new operators to participate in the auction, as they would need to invest an additional $1 billion for the 3G licences, over and above the investments they are making in rolling out their new 2G networks
  6. The higher base price could lead to a scenario similar to Europe where telcos could not recover the costs they paid for 3G spectrum.
  7. The higher the base price, the higher the tariffs, as telcos will have to make a business case of it

 

The government gains on two fronts: Increasing the Base reserve price by 500 crores per player (Rs.4040 crores against Rs.3540 crores) and increasing the number of operators from five to seven.

 

In a related development, GSM operators said the government must resolve all issues with allotting 2G spectrum before deciding on the 3G auction.The telecom ministry has decided that it will take a call on all issues related to second-generation spectrum – the airwaves on which all mobile services are offered at present, including the methodology for future allocations, the pricing for this scarce resource and the usage charges for utilising these airwaves only after the upcoming auction of 3G spectrum.

Any ambiguity on issues related to 2G, especially in the current business and economic environment, could seriously dampen investor interest and adversely affect revenues that would be raised by the government through the auction process

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Smartphone to replace Desktop Phones (North America) by 2011

Posted in Industry updates by Manas Ganguly on June 20, 2009

Enterprises in North America will be supporting more mobile phones than desktop phones by 2011, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner analysts said that although most users will still also have a desktop phone, mobile phones will become more prevalent and replace desktop voice hardware to become the primary device.

“The adoption and standardization of corporate liable mobile phones in the enterprise has been driven by the use of smartphones, wireless e-mail and the integration of these phones into IP telephony systems, while improved in-building coverage and lower mobile service costs have also played a part.,” said Phil Redman, research vice president at Gartner.

Mr. Redman said that as spending on mobile communications services grows, and soon overtakes that of wired voice services, enterprises will need to plan how they manage usage, support and costs. Although mobile hardware costs are generally less than desktops, mobile services can still cost five times more than an enterprise-wired call and this could represent a huge shift in budget for enterprise communications services.

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