Ronnie05's Blog

Gartner:The OS markets in future

Posted in Computing and Operating Systems, Mobile Devices and Company Updates by Manas Ganguly on October 8, 2009

Gartner has released a 3 year projection of  0perating system market shares. A few key takes from the study are as follows:

1. 4X growth expected in high end smartphone volumes. Clearly the numbers and growth in the category will be driven by the smartphone segment.


2. Gartner predicts Android (which is currently 2% of the market) will grow to 14 percent of the global smartphone market in 2012 — beating Apple’s iPhone, Windows Mobile and RIM’s BlackBerry platforms.

3. Gartner has been very Android biased for long. The 5 reasons why Android will outrun most of its competitors provided by Gartner are as follows:

  • Google backs Android, a major pipeline for its cloud services.
  • Android is improving rapidly. The Cupcake 1.5 release was well-received, and Donut 1.6 has already been sent over the air to handset owners.
  • Android is open, making it easier to quickly gain developers’ support.
  • Android will run on phones from several manufacturers, which will help it quickly spread through the marketplace. HTC, Motorola and Samsung are already supporting handsets.
  • Android combines the best of what’s out there. It’s open, but it offers iPhone-like menus and apps, with Windows Mobile-esque icons, with Palm Pre-like multitasking. There’s another arms race afoot — the battle among Android handset makers as to which company can squeeze the most out of the OS.

4. The report indicates enough head room for all players to grow in the market which is quadrapuling in the next 3 years.

5. Interestingly, Gartner seems to indicate that Blackberry which is currently the best seller in US and North America will loose ground to the edgier iPhone and Android.

6. It also looks like Gartner has a lot of faith on Nokia and Symbian, which has been loosing ground lately to the others. 39% looks a tad high and i would epect Symbian to lead the market but by a more slender margin. I would give Symbian a market share close to 25%. This is in light of the fact that Nokia has not been able to keep pace with the iPhone/Android/Palm OS.

7. WinMo’s future hangs by WinMo 7.0 releasing next year 4Q. Microoft has to deliver on that else it would have to kiss smartphone OSs a bye for times to come.

8. Surprisingly, even if Linux and Open Source is the toast of Internet and Mobile developement, Gartner refuses to acknowledge the fact and accords a paltry 5.4% to Linux based systems. What with Moblin, Maemo and the coming of age of Intel in the smartphone space?

Whats your take on the situation? Leave your comments on how you see the smartphone OS wars shaping up!

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