SmartPhones: Will they become primary mobile devices in future?
World over sales of smart-phones will exceed that of regular handsets by 2015, so much so that by 2016, smart-phones will constitute 2/3rds of total mobile phone sales.This has been reported by a Telecom trends international study. The report goes on to say that Smartphones will become the primary mobile device recording robust growth of 28% through 2016. On the other hand, the sales of the regular handsets will start declining.
A few thoughts-
1. Africa and Asia are the two markets which will power the growth in mobile handset population. The present population of handsets world over is 4 billion handsets.
2. Between 2010-2015, Asian markets would reach high volume penetrations. There would also be a strong demand of higher end handsets on a replacement basis.
3. However, I am apprehensive of African numbers.
4. Overall however, the replacement demand will have strong contribution from Latin and North America, Asia, Europe and Oceania.
5. A 66% contribution of replacement devices is thus a strong possibility
6. World over adoption of 3G and 4G mobile broadband will again bolster demand for Internet browsing devices.
7. Even with an internet sidedness of mobile communication and the utility of smart-phones, price would be a hindrance to smart-phones mass acceptance as the primary device.
8. Then, there are other devices and technologies which would emerge to be strong contenders to smart-phone functionality. Net-books could be an example. And you never know what radical innovation lies round the corner.
Net of all things, 66% of handset sales from smart phones by 2016 will be a tough one. Upgrades and high end devices, probably yes, but smart-phone @ 66% looks a bit stretched.
What are your thoughts: Can smart-phones be 2/3rds of the market by 2016?