Tablets: Growth charted from 2012 thru 2016
IDC has upped the forecast for Tablet shipments by 2012-13 by a factor of 4% on average. In the 4 year horizon, IDC has upped growth estimates by 8% for 2016. In the same vein, IHS iSuppli forecasts growth of tablets from 120million units in 2012 to 340 million units in 2016. The CAGR for the category is about 18% (IDC) to 23% (iHS iSuppli).
The Apple iPad dominance on the tablet segment is carried through 2012-16 even though the shares have a gentle downward slope. Android powered by Samsung, Amazon and other Tablets maintains its shares where as Microsoft is seen as the biggest winner. (This is contrary to the current state of Windows tablet strategy which is in disarray – and shipmenet numbers have been lowered from 1 million units to 500-600K tablets). In the same vein IDC really does put the Tablet category as a three horse race with no room for any other OS in the market.
Contrast this with the death of eBook Readers- which have gone from the “next big thing” to “also ran”. Current forecasts show the eBook reader market as having already reached its peak of just over 20 million units shipping in 2011, with a decline to barely 7 million in the 2015-2016 timeframe. This epitomizes the attraction of the “multi-tasking” consumer gear at the expense of the single-function box—even when that one function is done supremely well (as in the case of ebook readers). PMP/MP3 players, GPS systems, low-end digital cameras. Companies hoping to make money on ebook reader hardware rather than as a channel for selling content—the Consumer Electronics version of razors and blades—are almost certain to have a difficult road ahead.