Setting up mobile for the next thunderstorm!
If there is anything static about the evolving technology paradigm today, it is the regularity of disruptions.Nicholas Taleb christened such disruptions as Black swans – We could look at naming it Thunderstorms.Technology disruption trends are driven by ‘thunderstorms’. Everything seemed calm and static, then suddenly the Web comes and changes the rules. The cellphone business appeared static and then the iPhone changed the dynamics.
Some trends are predictable: like the power of processors doubles every 18 months or storage capacity doubles every 12 months. Some are unpredictable: like growth of mobility and Web.For example, we had smartphones long before iPhone. But they were difficult to use devices and not accepted until Steve Jobs made an easy-to-use device in 2007.Today, the mobile handset is in flux. Microsoft has bought Nokia. Earlier, Google bought Motorola. Huawei and lenovo almost bought over Blackberry. The key here is that convergence of solutions, internet and mobile is driving the Applications based internet as the next thunderstorm.
Web is dying. It’s like AM radio of the digital era. Web will be here, but that’s not where major commerce will happen. Smartphones are becoming so powerful that to use them as just file viewers makes no sense. The future architecture will be one where there are very powerful apps, connected to resources in the cloud, and this connection is the future architecture.
The dominant players in the tech industry will have an app Internet ecosystem — a phone, tablet, PC, app architecture and a group of partners. Now, who will dominate it? One is obviously Apple, which has 30 billion app downloads; Android has 27 billion downloads, but 80% money is made on iOS.
It wasn’t a surprise when Google bought Motorola, or when Microsoft bought Nokia, as they needed a phone to complete the ecosystem. Amazon could well be a very important app Internet ecosystem player. There are feelers that within 12 months, maybe six months, Amazon will have a phone. They already have a tablet, an operating system called Silk, and they might have a PC as well. Amazon buying Dell is an interesting possibility. As a trends, every 10 years in the tech industry, one big player, who looks like dying, comes back. In the 1980s, it was Intel. In the 1990s, it was IBM. In the 2000s, it was Apple and now it could be Amazon. Having said that Apple, Android and Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook are possibilities in phone business – making the mobile scene shift extremely.
Two of those five — Apple and Amazon — have a big advantage. They have customer credit card details. Apple has 450 million credit cards, Amazon has 220 million, Microsoft has 50 million via Xbox. Google and Facebook have zero. That’s the thunderstorm — in terms of a loyal user base — one can expect here. Every company in the world, selling insurance, tyres, banking will have to be a software company, via apps.