Ronnie05's Blog

The future OS paradigm

Posted in Computing and Operating Systems by Manas Ganguly on June 6, 2012

Zach Epstein, exe. editor of BGR had an interesting set of observation on the OS triumverate and the Android growth story to end in 2012 as Microsoft begins to steal Google & Apple’s thunder. The basis is the IDC report which sees a shift in the OS ranking ladder with Microsoft Windows 8 scoring a few points at the expense of Apple iOS and Android.

While a brief summary of the IDC report is as given below, the facts and the findings are not much changed. Smartphones are expected to grow albeit a slow trot given the increasing base. Feature phones will register declines pulling down the industry numbers.

On the OS dominance, Android will remain status quo although Windows could ride its way past Apple into what could be a second life for Microsoft post PC era. Legacy systems will provide Microsoft the traction in the market. 

 

Reflecting further, what could really influence the tables by 2016 is cross platform play – TV, mobile, car. For some time now Android and iOS focus has been to shift into other platforms which will augment mobile and be driven by mobility. To me Android and iOS may slow down but they will diversify into these platforms which will rub off on the mobile numbers. Developers as well will see this as a unique opportunity for multi platform presence through the cloud. So while the triumverate theory still holds, what is interesting is how OSs will migrate across platforms and the experience factor. Android has a spot of bother on that and Apple is heads and shoulders above others. Ultimately it is the seamless play across different computing and content/consumption platforms which really will sway sway developer communities.Cross platform pressence, migration, experience and abilities will form the future of mobility.

Blackberry- I think that story is done and dusted.

Mark Anderson’s 2010 Tech industry predictions

Posted in Industry updates by Manas Ganguly on December 15, 2009

Mark Anderson, strategist and visionary known for his sense and knowledge of markets around the world has released his list of 10 trends for 2010 which make an exciting read.Here are the ten:

1. 2010 will be The year of Platform Wars: netbooks, cell phones, pads, Cloud standards. Clouds will tend to support the consumer world (Picnik, Amazon), enterprises will continue to build out their own data centers, and Netbook sector growth rates continue to post very large numbers.

2. 2010 will be The year of Operating System Wars: Windows 7 flavors, Mac OS, Linux flavors, Symbian, Android, Chrome OS, Nokia Maemo 5. The winners, in order in unit sales: W7, Mac OS, Android. W7, ironically, by failure of imagination and by its PC-centric platform, actively clears space for others to take over the OS via mobile platforms.

3. All content goes mobile. Everything gets tagged, multi-channeled, and the walled gardens open up. TV and movie content, particularly, break free of old trapped business models. We are moving toward watching first-run TV and movies on phones, for a price. Which leads to no. 4.

4. MobileApps and Mobile Content drive MicroPayments, which move from niche to mainstream payment models. Payment for content will split along age lines, at around 35; above, pay; below, don’t pay.

5. The Phone vs. the PC: A Split Along Two Paths (enterprise vs. consumer).Note: The phone is now the most interesting computer platform, and it is driving innovation: software, business models, distribution. Netbooks are next up as drivers.

6. There will be a Cloud Catastrophe in 2010 that limits Cloud growth by raising security issues and restricting enterprise trust. CIOs will see the cloud as the doorstep for industrial espionage.

7. A huge chasm opens in computing, between Consumer and Enterprise (government/business.), with Apple, Google and most Asian hardware companies in Consumer, and Dell, IBM, Cisco, and MS on the Enterprise side. HP will straddle both. Before 2010, talk was all about unifying consumer and enterprise. Now, talk will be about their split.

8. Microsoft loses in its Consumer play: except for gaming, it is Game Over for MS in Consumer. This will make Consumer the place to be, where the most robust and exciting change artists will work.

9. News media that survive will move to the subscription model, in whole or in part, along age lines. (See no. 4)

10. Connecting remote data to people and things in real time will lead to a series of exciting new devices and applications. Possible examples: real time comparison and recipe-driven shopping, facial recognition (in social spaces) linked to bios, self-guided tours by phone, voice-queried information about your personal environment. Many of these are technically proved out today, but they will start to emerge as an exciting and brand new trend in applications in 2010.

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